Third Base

 

I just found our next third baseman. I just hope he can hit as well as he can catch.

 

Jorge Posada

 

I read a note this morning that said Jorge Posada was going to announce his retirement from the Yankees and baseball tomorrow. Posada played his entire 17 year career with the Yankees and he was a key component on their 5 World Series championships since 1996.

 

I also read that he is probably a lock for the Hall of Fame. Maybe not first ballot, but he will definitely get in. Let’s take a look at his credentials.

 

–  Power:  8th on the all-time catcher list for home runs……… Check

–  Clutch:  11th on the catcher list for RBI’s…………Check

–  Recognition:  5 time All-Star and 5 time Silver Slugger Award winner…….Check

–  He was a part of 5 World Series winners………Check

–  And of course, he was a Yankee………Check

 

But wait, is he really a shoe-in?

–  He has only hit above .287 once in his career, and under .250 eight times.

–  Of his five All-Star games, he was only named a starter twice.  Not that the fans always pick the best player, but it does give you an overall feeling of what people thought of him.

–  He’s never won a Gold Glove. I mean, if you’re not gonna win a Gold Glove as a catcher, than you better dominate on offense if you plan on making it into the Hall; and Posada didn’t.

–  Yes he has 5 WS rings, but I think players like Jeter, Rivera, Martinez, Clemens, Petitte, and Williams can lay more claim as to being the key cog in the machine.

 

Let’s look at a few comparables.

 

—————————-    G             H             HR          RBI         Avg

Player A:              1988       1782       324         1070       .252

Player B:              1829       1664       275         1065       .273

Player C:              1503       1527       260         864         .287

 

One player is Lance Parrish, one is Javy Lopez and one is Jorge Posada. Both Parrish and Lopez received less than 5% of the vote and were dropped off the HOF ballot after just one appearance.  And without me telling you which player is which (Parrish-A, Posada-B, Lopez-C);  I bet that you had a hard time picking out Posada.

 

So I say Posada was a good player, and he deserves the moment in the sun that he is going to get tomorrow when he retires, but when you start to hear things like “great player”, “best catcher of his era”, and “HOF lock”; think twice.

 

 

1962

 

Tuition at Harvard was $1,520.00

Gas was $0.28/gallon.

The first K-Mart opened.

John Glenn was the first American to Orbit earth.

The Beatles released their first recording, “Love Me Do”

The National U.S. Debt topped $300 Billion for the first time.

ABC broadcast its first series in color, The Jetsons.

Ernie Banks hit his 300th HR and Mickey Mantle hit his 400th.

OAK GM Billy Beane was born.

 

I was born in the middle 1960’s, which doesn’t make me old, but as I peruse around the MLB Blog world I have a feeling it makes me one of the older participants on this format.

 

I mention all of these things to lend some perspective and admit a little jealousy about the news item I am about to post.

 

Yesterday, 49 year old Jamie Moyer (Born Nov. 1962) was signed to a minor league contract with a spring training invite by the Colorado Rockies. Moyer last pitched in 2010 with the Phillies. He missed all of last season after he had Tommy John surgery.

 

Moyer has won 267 games over his career that started with the Cubs in 1986.

 

He has started 628 games which is 14th most of any post-1901 pitcher.

 

And one last fact; over parts of 8 different seasons in the minor leagues, Moyer won 54 games. Adding that to his major league win total gives him 321 career professional victories. That’s pretty darn good.

 

Good Luck in 2012 Jamie!!!

 

Soriano to Detroit?

 

Yesterday the Detroit Tigers announced that their star DH/Catcher, Victor Martinez, will probably be lost for the entire 2012 season after tearing his left ACL last week during a winter workout. The doctors will reexamine Martinez next week, but it is expected that he will have to have surgery.

 

Martinez joined the Tigers last year after 7 years with Cleveland and 2 with Boston. Despite missing some time with a groin injury, Martinez still had a great year, driving in 103 runs and hitting .330

 

Victor Martinez also provided protection for Miguel Cabrera in the lineup for a team that won the AL Central by 15 games. Even with Martinez out, Detroit will still be the favorite to win the division again in 2012, but they will have to replace that huge hole in the lineup if they hope to dominate as they did last year.

 

Several names have already been floated out there as potential replacements. They include in-house candidates like Clete Thomas and Jack Hannahan; or free-agents like Johnny Damon and Carlos Pena.

 

Another possible move would be to trade for a player. There were rumors last month that the Cubs and the Tigers were talking about a trade involving Matt Garza. If I was Jed Hoyer, I would use that already established report to call the Tigers up and see if they have any interest in Alfonso Soriano.

 

Despite the ire that Soriano has drawn from Cubs fans the past couple of seasons, mostly due to his contract and lack of defense, he can still hit for power (24 HR’s in 2010, 26 in 2011). However, it has become increasingly evident that Soriano is becoming more and more of a DH type player. 2011 Cubs manager Mike Quade would send in a defensive replacement for Soriano almost every time the Cubs had a late inning lead.

 

The problem of course is Soriano’s monster contract. The Cubs still owe Alfonso $54M over the next three years. That’s an M for Million. There is no way Detroit is taking on that kind of money. The Cubs would have to eat a huge portion like they did with Miami in the Zambrano deal. Is it worth it to the Cubs to pay $40M NOT to have Soriano play for them????

 

Trading Soriano would also free up the Cubs to play either Brett Jackson or Dave Sappelt.

 

Honestly, if I’m the Tigers. I either ask the Cubs for Soriano and Garza and cash; or I go out and sign Carlos Pena for 1 year $14M.

 

 

Talkin’ Wood

According to published rumors today, the Cubs and Kerry Wood are close to a deal that would bring Kerry back again for at least the 2012 season. Last year Wood returned to the Cubs after two seasons spent with the Indians and the Yankees.

Wood has had his ups and downs with the Cubs; from the history making 20 strike-out performance during his rookie year, to losing game 7 of the 2003 NLCS, and through all the arm injuries. But no matter what has happened, Wood has always been a fan favorite and he has always returned the love to Chicago and its fans.

Kerry and his wife have also done a lot of charity work in Chicago through their Wood Family Foundation. They have an event scheduled for tomorrow January 13th. You can check out some of the details HERE. It could be an extra nice event if Kerry were able to announce that he is signing a contract with the Cubs for 2012.

I also want to see the Cubs sign Wood for another reason. Ya know all the vendors outside the park that sell different hats and jerseys and t-shirts. Well one of the more popular t-shirts has been one version or another that says…..

Chicago Cubs……….

We  Got Wood

Which is fine, but now that the Cubs have also acquired Travis Wood from the Reds, the vendors need to update their shirts. I have a couple of ideas. ;)

Chicago Cubs………

Now with twice the Wood

Chicago Cubs……

We get Wood twice a day

Chicago Cubs…….

Our Wood goes both ways  (Kerry is Righty, Travis is Lefty)

…………..Maybe I should let the professionals handle the slogans. :)

Fantasy Baseball’s 2012 First Round

This post is about fantasy baseball.

I wanted to get that out of the way right from the start. I know that among baseball fans, the topic of fantasy baseball can be just as dividing as the DH, inter-league play, and ketchup on hotdogs.

I love playing fantasy baseball and have been in one league or another for over 20 years. The past 5 years I have been participating in a high stakes event, The National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC).

Each March baseball fans from around the country gather into several regional locations to take part in one large Main Event.  It’s a contest comprised of some of the best fantasy players in the country with the season ending winner taking home the national trophy…… and oh yeah, $100,000.

Last years Main Event winner, Lindy Hinkelman, won the contest for the second time in three years. He received quite a bit of publicity back in October. Here is just one of the many stories posted by the NY Times and other publications about his win.

But the NFBC doesn’t just have high stake events, they also run what they call satellite and slow draft leagues which start at much lower price points. And believe it or not, some of those leagues have already started. In fact the first league started just one week after the last pitch of the 2011 regular season.

I started my first league last week. It’s a 15-team mixed league 5×5 draft. The draft takes place online and each participant gets up to 8 hours to make a pick. We are currently in round 14 after 8 days.

I had the first pick in round 1. I thought I would post the entire first round to give people an idea of how the 2012 fantasy baseball season is starting to shape up.

Pick 1: Albert Pujols -  This was my pick. Albert has been the overall number 1 fantasy player for a decade. Yes he is getting older, yes he is changing teams and leagues. But no one has been more consistent, and until the day he actually stops producing huge numbers, he is number 1.

Pick 2: Matt Kemp- Kemp is just 27 years old. He was one HR short of a 40/40 season. The only thing that kept him out of the number slot is the lack of consistency and his position, OF.

Pick 3: Miguel Cabrera- Another first baseman that is rock solid for a 35+HR/ .320+ BA season.

Pick 4: Adrian Gonzalez- Getting a premium first baseman is a must, and so the fourth pick in the draft is the 3rd first baseman to go. As expected last year, power dropped a little in BOS but the average went up.

Pick 5: Jacoby Ellsbury- Last year went 30/30 and probably would have won the MVP award if not for Boston’s September collapse.

Pick 6: Jose Bautista- Qualifies at the very thin 3B position. 97 HR’s the last two years and even bumped his average up to .302

Pick 7: Joey Votto- Another quality 1B goes off the boards.

Pick 8: Troy Tulowitzki- The best hitting SS in the game. Has yet to put up back-to-back 500+ at-bat seasons.

Pick 9: Dustin Pedroia- Solid second baseman, SB’s moved back up last year, went ahead of Cano in this draft, but usually is 2nd second baseman taken.

Pick 10: Justin Verlander- First pitcher taken off the board. Verlander was all-everything last year. Can he repeat?

Pick 11: Carlos Gonzalez- A wrist injury hurt his power late last year. A full season of AB’s, good power, good speed, and Coors Field make this guy an easy 1st rounder.

Pick 12: Robinson Cano- He has returned first round value two years in a row. I see no reason that will change this year.

Pick 13: Clayton Kershaw- Last years NL Cy Young Award winner. Kershaw is young, pitches in a great pitchers park, strikes hitters out, and he is still improving.

Pick 14: Curtis Granderson- Last year he went  41HR/119RBI/25SB/136Runs, the only thing keeping Granderson out of the top 3 this year is his .262 average.

Pick 15: Roy Halladay- He’s really good.  He absolutely dominates your ERA and WHiP categories with a consistent 230+ innings each year, he pitches for a winning team and best of all he’s Really Really Good.

So there you have it, an early look at Fantasy Baseball’s first round players.

2012 Hall of Fame Recap

 

As expected, the BBWAA elected just one player to be enshrined into baseball’s Hall of Fame.

 

Congrats to Barry Larkin. He was a deserving candidate and I’m happy to see him get the required number of votes. Larkin and Ron Santo, elected posthumously by the veterans committee, will be enshrined this coming July.

 

Jack Morris received the second highest vote total.  66.7% of the voters thought that he was worthy of the HOF. It was the largest percentage he has every received in his 13 years on the ballot, but short of the 75% needed for election.

 

Jeff Bagwell and Lee Smith were next with 56% and 50.6% respectively. It represented an increase in vote totals for both players.

 

If there is any good news for Morris, Bagwell, and Smith; it’s that every player except one (Gil Hodges) that has ever topped the 50% mark has eventually made it into the Hall.

 

It was disappointing to see Tim Raines (48.7%), Alan Trammel (36.8%), and Edgar Martinez (36.5%) garner such little support; especially Raines, a guy that should be in already.

 

And as has been the case the past few years, the writers said no to the PED’s crowd with Mark McGwire (19.8%) and Rafael Palmeiro (11.0%) falling far short.

 

Next year’s ballot should be very interesting with first time nominees Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa, Mike Piazza, Craig Biggio, and Curt Shilling. But that’s a discussion for another time, so…..

 

Congrats to 2012 HOFers Barry Larkin and Ron Santo

 

 

You can read my HOF ballot predictions HERE.

 

 

2012 Hall of Fame Ballot Part III

 

Here is the last of my three part series on the 2012 HOF candidates.

 

You can read Parts I and II here and here respectively.

 

Alan Trammell: This one is really hard for me, for every stat that I look at that tells me he should be in the HOF, I can find another that says he was very good, but not great. His career OPS+ is 110, that’s 14th among all shortstops.  Cal Ripkin is at 112 and Robin Yount is at 115, so Trammell compares well; but then again Jim Fergosi is at 113 and he is not a HOFer. His lifetime WAR (wins above replacement) is 66.9, every other HOF eligible SS above 50 is in the Hall. However, over his 20 years he made just 6 All-Star games and only 2 as a starter. Trammell is the ultimate borderline HOF player, for this year (his 11th on the ballot), he is a No.

 

Mark McGwire / Rafael Palmeiro / Jeff Bagwell: I grouped them all together, yet they are 3 distinct different cases.

 

McGwire has admitted to steroid use. The only reason he gets consideration for the HOF is his 583 HR’s. Despite his claim that PED’s didn’t help him hit HR’s, it did. He is a No.

 

Rafael Palmeiro tested positive for steroids. He gets consideration for the Hall because of his 569 HR’s. But he also had 3000+ hits. There are only three others on the 3000/500 list (Aaron, Mays, Murray).  This one is really, really hard for me. This year he is a No. Let’s see what happens next year when Bonds, Clemens, and Sosa join the ballot.

 

Jeff Bagwell has the numbers, no question about it. Yet last year on a weak ballot he only received 46% of the vote. Why? It’s because of the suspicion of PED’s. He’s never failed a test that we know of, he’s never admitted to anything; his only true crime seems to be getting muscular and being very very good. Without further evidence to the contrary, I say he is a Yes. But if he doesn’t get in (and he won’t), I will not be sad.

 

The Hall of Fame announcement is this afternoon. I expect the writers to disappoint as usual and only vote in one player for induction, Barry Larkin.

 

 

2012 Hall of Fame Ballot Part II

Time for a couple of more HOF candidates and my opinion of them.

Edgar Martinez: Like the position of relief pitcher before them, the Designated Hitter is a role on the major league roster that HOF voters have had a hard time quantifying.  It’s the very idea that the position is “hitter only” that tends to skew the voters perspective.  But think about, over the 30+ year history of the DH, how many great DH’s have there been. 3? 4? There is Paul Molitor, Frank Thomas, David Ortiz and Edgar Martinez.  Maybe you can name a few more that had a couple of good seasons, but not sustained careers at the DH. In fact the only “DH” in the Hall (Molitor),  played more than half his games in the field. Look, I could go through all the analytics that proves Martinez is HOF worthy (and they do prove it), but I want to leave you with one last thought. The MLB Award issued after each season to the best DH is called “The Edgar Martinez Award”.

Tim Raines: He if had played in any other era, he would be considered the best leadoff man of his time. Unfortunately for Raines, he played in the same era as the greatest leadoff hitter of all-time, Ricky Henderson.  The main criticism against Raines seems to be that he was just a compiler of stats. But just look at these numbers

Player A:     2502 Gms /170 HR / 980 RBI / 808 SB/  .385 OBP /  .425 SLG

Player B:     2616 Gms/149 HR /  900 RBI / 938 SB/  .343 OBP /  .410 SLG

Player A is Tim “Rock” Raines and Player B is Lou Brock.  Raines should be in.

Don Mattingly: For a four year stretch from 1984 through 1987, Don Mattingly was one of, if not the best player in the game. He also is probably the best defensive first baseman in AL history. He was “Donnie Baseball”. While some may not give that much thought, this guy lived and breathed baseball and was the face of the Yankees. If we are gonna hold against some guy the fact that he was an a-hole on the field (Albert Belle) when voting for a player, we should then credit a player for being the epitome of what we want to see in terms of leadership and sportsmanship. Put it all together and Don Mattingly was a very very good player, but I hate to say, not a HOF player. Sorry Don, no bronze bust for you.

Read Part I here………..

2012 Hall of Fame Ballot Part I

 

Each year the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA) holds its annual election for the purpose of electing members into the Baseball Hall of Fame.

 

That sentence is almost verbatim right out of the HOF election rules. However, I’m not in the BBWAA so I don’t have to play by their rules. I don’t have to seal my ballot, I don’t have to wait until next week, I don’t even have to limit myself to the names on the official ballot; so here is my 2012 Hall of Fame ballot.

 

Barry Larkin: This is a no-brainer. No really, anyone not voting for this guy has no brain. The fact that Larkin only received 62% of the vote last year tells me just how out of touch the writers are when it comes to HOF voting. Larkin is one of the top 10 best offensive shortstops of all-time. I don’t want to get heavy into numbers during this post, but some need to be posted to make a point. Larkin’s career Wins above Replacement (WAR) is 68.9. That’s 8th all-time among shortstops. Throw in 3 Gold Gloves, 10 All-Star games, 9 Silver Slugger Awards, and 1 MVP Award and Barry Larkin is as rock solid of a hall of famer as anyone.

 

Jack Morris: No. Look, I get that he pitched one of the best games in World Series history. I could make a solid argument that it was the greatest game pitched in the WS. But one game doesn’t get you in. The guy wasn’t dominating during his career. His biggest problem, his 3.90 career ERA.  That would be the highest of any pitcher in the hall. His career ERA+ is 105. To put that in perspective, AJ Burnett is at 105, Kevin Millwood is at 107, Barry Zito is at 111! And yes I know that somebody has to have the highest ERA, but you gotta make up for that in some other way. You need 300+ wins or 3,000 K’s, Morris just doesn’t have them.

 

Lee Smith: I was a no for a while, but I’ve changed my mind. Yes, Lee Smith is a Hall of Fame worthy pitcher. Over the years we have had a hard time placing the reliever into the overall picture of baseball history, mainly because the position has evolved more than any other in the game. And because of that, we’ve had difficulty quantifying what the value of a reliever and the stat now most identified with his position, the save, is worth. First let’s just look at the raw number, 478 saves, that is 3rd all-time. But go beyond that, he is 5th all-time in WAR for any pitcher that has pitched 80% or more of their games in relief. He is 9th all-time in ERA+ for relievers with 1000 or more innings pitched (better than Fingers or Gossage). When it comes to relief pitchers, Lee Smith should go in.

 

Parts II and III to come…………….

 

 

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