August 2011
What If ……………Is Back
With the recent firing of Jim Hendry as the Chicago Cubs general manager, there has been much talk as to who will replace him in the Cubs front office.
One name that has jumped to the top of the speculation list is Oakland GM Billy Beane. Depending on your point of view, Beane may or may not be what the Cubs need.
It wouldn’t be the first time that Beane’s name has been linked to a new team. In 2002 the Boston Red Sox tried to hire Beane away from Oakland. Billy decided to stay with the A’s and Boston eventually went with Theo Epstein.
Beane is the main subject of the book Moneyball, as well as the upcoming movie of the same name.
And while wondering what Beane might do if he gets the job is interesting, I thought this would be a good time to bring back a Wrigley Regular feature that I haven’t used in a couple months, What If…….
The idea of What If is to take an event, alter that event, and then see what 5 things would be different because of the change. So with that in mind, let’s play What If.
What If…..… The Cubs had hired Billy Beane as their General Manager in 2002 instead of Jim Hendry?
1) Instead of signing with the Oakland A’s in 2002, Beane gets Scott Hatteberg to sign with the Cubs to be their starting catcher. Hatteberg becomes an instant team leader and pays off huge in 2003 when….. instead of having Paul Bako behind the plate in game 6 of the NLCS, Hatteberg goes out to the mound and settles Mark Prior down after Alou doesn’t catch a pop foul down the left field line. Prior then strikes out Ivan Rodriguez and Miguel Cabrera grounds into a 6-4-3 double play started by Alex Gonzalez. The Cubs win the game 3-0 and go on to win the 2003 World Series.
2) In 2004, Michael Lewis’ book Moneyball hits the books stores. White Sox general manager Kenny Williams is unhappy about the way he is portrayed in the book and attempts to out-smart Billy Beane in a trade. That fall Williams trades overweight rookie pitcher Booby Jenks for catcher Michael Barrett. With Barrett behind the plate, the Sox don’t go out and get AJ Pierzynski in 2005 and use Damaso Marte as their closer. The White Sox don’t win the World Series and both Williams and Ozzie Guillen are fired after the 2006 season.
3) In the fall of 2006, several top free agents hit the market, including Alfonso Soriano who had just completed only the 4th 40/40 season in baseball history. But because Beane is fixated on on-base percentage plus slugging, he scratches Soriano and his then .820 OPS off his want list and targets JD Drew. Beane gets Drew and his .904 OPS for half the price of what the Angels pay for Soriano. In the five years after the signings, Drew plays 130+ games or more only once and is seen as a drag on the Cubs roster, meanwhile Soriano is a 5 time All-Star for the Halos at the DH position and wins the AL MVP in 2009 after leading the Angels to a World Series victory.
4) In the June 2007 Amateur Draft, Billy Beane and the Cubs select Jason Heyward with the number 3 overall pick. Heyward moves up through the minors quickly and wins the 2010 NL Rookie of the Year award. The Atlanta Braves get Josh Vitters with their first round pick. Vitters is still in the Atlanta system waiting for Chipper Jones to retire.
5) In the fall of 2011, Billy Beane is played by Brad Pitt in the movie version of the book Moneyball. Beane is able to see the movie as many times as he wants because he has nothing else to do after being fired in the middle of the season as Cubs GM. Chicago hires Jim Hendry as the new GM sighting the need to get back to “old school”, “I know talent only if I see it” type of scouting. The Cubs go at least another 20 years without winning a World Series.
Read my previous What If’s …. Here and Here.
If you have a What If that you would like answered, send it to WrigleyRegular@Comcast.net
Or add it to the comments below.
20 Wins!
Justin Verlander won his 20th game today. He becomes the first AL pitcher to win 20 before September since Roger Clemens in 1997.
Some more 20 win stats from 2000-2011.
The Cubs have had just one 20 win pitcher during this time. Jon Lieber (20) in 2001.
The White Sox have had just one during this time, Esteban Loaiza (21) in 2003.
The team with the most 20 game winners…. Arizona(5). Curt Shilling and Randy Johnson twice each, along with Brandon Webb.
The most wins since 2000… Randy Johnson with 24 in 2002.
There have been 37 twenty game winners since 2000. Just 9 of the 37 won 22 games or more.
Two pitchers, Curt Shilling and Roy Halladay, are the only pitchers to win 20+ games 3 times during this time period.
Two pitchers, Pedro Martinez(2002) and Josh Beckett (2007), won 20 games in just 30 starts.
Roger Clemens (2001) and Mike Mussina (2008) are the only pitchers to win 20 games without completing any games.
The most loses….. Roy Oswalt (20-12) in 2005.
Lowest era… Pedro Martinez ( 2.26 in 2002), Highest era….Tim Hudson (4.14 in 2000).
High 5
Aramis Ramirez went five for five last night against the Braves. It’s the first time in his career that he has done that.
So how about some 5 hit info……..
It was the 48th time that a Cubs hitter has had 5 or more hits in a game at Wrigley Field.
Just earlier this season, Kosuke Fukudome had five hits against the Colorado Rockies.
Three Cubs have had 6 hits in a game at Wrigley. Bill Madlock (6-6 on 7/26/75), Don Kessinger (6-6 on 6/17/71) and Frank Demaree (6-7 on 7/5/1937).
17 of the 48 five plus hit games have included at least 1 home run, 6 games had 2 home runs.
The best RBI day of any 5+ hit game by a Cub in Wrigley? June 23, 1984, also known as the Sandberg game. Ryne Sandberg was 5-6 with 2 HR’s and 7 RBI’s against the St Louis Cardinals.
Billy Williams and Stan Hack had the most 5 hit games as a Cub at Wrigley Field with 3 each.
Two Cubs had 5 hits on the same day. On Aug 2, 1947 both Eddie Waitkus and Peanuts Lowery had five hits against the Brooklyn Dodgers. And yes, for all of us that remember the Chicago Cubs of the late 70’s, the Peanuts Lowery that got those 5 hits is the same one that was a coach with the team under Herman Franks.
31 of the 48 5+ hit games came from the first 3 spots in the batting order. The lowest spot in the order? 8th. Shawon Dunston had 5 hits out of the 8 hole on 4/19/1986 against the Pirates.
The Cubs record in games when a Cub had 5+ hits at Wrigley is 32-15-1. On Aug 19, 1930 the Cubs and Phillies played to a 6-6 tie after 16 innings in the second game of a double-header. The game was stopped because of darkness.
Castro Benched
I’m a fan of Starlin Castro.
As I’ve said in the past, I think he has the rawest pure talent of any player on the team. Unfortunately, I’ve also suggested that he still needs to learn how to be a professional baseball player.
He actually reminds me a lot of Andruw Jones. They may not have the exact same skill set, but they are/were both very talented players that “appear” to lack complete dedication to the game.
Now I know that that is not a fair statement. I don’t really know what’s going on in Starlin’s head. And the fact is that it does take very hard work to just make the majors, let alone hit .300 or smack 400+ homers.
And I don’t think it’s fair to just take one moment in time and use that to define a player’s entire career, just ask Scottie Pippen.
But if something happens on the field, a camera will see it, even if the manager does not.
http://mlb.mlb.com//shared/flash/video/share/ObjectEmbedFrame.swf?width=400&height=254&content_id=18299867&property=mlb
And so yesterday Mike Quade benched Castro so that he could have “a mental day off”.
Let’s see how “rested” he is tonight.
Jim Hendry Fired!
The Judge has spoken. (Read the case For/Against Jim Hendry here).
On a day when the Cubs are in fifth place, 18.5 games out of first with a 54-70 record.
Jim Hendry is out.
Fired as GM of the Chicago Cubs.
This is a team with money to spend and fans that come out to the ballpark. {In fact, today (Today!!) the Cubs and Wrigley Field are hosting the largest crowd to see a baseball game there in 33 years.}
Over his 9 years with the team they had a .500 record. No really! .500. They were 749-747 under Hendry. Now in the grand scheme, that record probably makes him one of the most successful GM’s in Cubs history, but it’s not good enough if you don’t win a World Series or at least a National League title somewhere in there. And he didn’t.
Case Closed.
Streaking…… Pt 2
A couple of days ago I suggested that not enough attention was being paid by the baseball world to Dan Uggla and his 33 game hit streak. Unfortunately, it appears that my call to action put a little too much pressure on Uggla and his hit streak was stopped that night. 
Matt Garza and the Cubs were able to hold Dan Uggla hitless (0-3) as they beat the Atlanta Braves 6-5 to take 2 games of 3 in the series.
The ending of Uggla’s hit streak got me to start thinking about the other players that I mentioned in my previous post about hit streaks and what pitchers had stopped those hitters.
So let’s go back now to the seven longest streaks since and including Pete Rose and see what Starting Pitcher** ended each players run at Joe DiMaggio-like glory.
Pete Rose 44 games in 1978 - Larry McWilliams ended Roses’ streak in Atlanta. Rose was 0-4 w/BB. It was the first time Rose had ever faced McWilliams. During his career, Rose would end up going 11-42 (.262) against McWilliams.
Paul Molitor 39 games in 1987 - John Farrell ended Molitor’s streak in Milwaukee while pitching for Cleveland. Molitor was 0-4 in a 10 inning loss. Molitor had faced Farrell one previous time, he had gotten a hit 8 days earlier to extend his streak. During his career, Molitor was 6-23 (.261) off Farrell.
Jimmy Rollins 38 games in 2006 – Jason Marquis, pitching for St Louis in a game in Philadelphia stopped Rollins (0-4). Rollins, up to this point in his career is 7-46 (.152) against Marquis.
Luis Castillo 35 games in 2002 – Mark Redmond of the Detroit Tigers came into Florida to stop Castillo (0-4). It was the first time the two had met. Castillo is 1-12 (.083) against Mark Redmond in his career.
Chase Utley 35 games in 2006 - In a game against the Mets in NY, Utley (0-5) was stopped by Orlando Hernandez. Utley faced Hernandez 14 times in his career, getting just 3 hits (.214).
Benito Santiago 34 games in 1987 - In a game on the last Saturday of the season, Orel Hershiser shut out Santiago (0-3). The two players would face each other many times over their careers with Orel getting the best of Santiago more times than not. Benito was 11-56 (.196)against Hershiser.
Dan Uggla 33 games in 2011 – Matt Garza stopped Uggla Sunday afternoon. For his career, Uggla is now 3-11 ( .272) against Garza. The 3 hits came in his 3 previous at-bats before the streak ending game.
As an aggregate, the seven hit streaking players were a combined 49-204 (.240) against their streak busting opponents.
** I only looked at the starting pitchers on the streak ending day. Not all at-bats in the streak busting game were against the starters that day.
Streaking
Dan Uggla doesn’t play in New York or Boston or Chicago. He plays in Atlanta. While the Braves might be a very popular team in the Southeast, they are still just a regional favorite that doesn’t have the national following of say the Yankees, Red Sox or Cubs.
And so what he is doing in baseball right now, a 33 game hit streak, does not seem to be getting the over-the-top, wall-to-wall, live cut-in for every at-bat coverage by ESPN that a Derek Jeter race for 3000 hits might get; but it is something special.
What really makes it special is the incredibly unlikely nature of it happening.
In the 92 games prior to the streak, Uggla had a .182 batting average. He is a career .259 hitter.
Only 18 players have had longer streaks in baseball history. For some perspective, there have been 20 perfect games pitched.
This is the 7th longest streak since Pete Rose hit safely in 44 straight games in 1978.
And again, the crazy part is the guy who is doing it. Here are the seven longest streaks since Rose along with their batting averages the year before the streak and the year of the streak.
Pete Rose (44) 1978 .311/.302 All-time hit King
Paul Molitor (39) 1987 .281/.353 .306 lifetime avg and 3300+ hits
Jimmy Rollins (38) 2006 .290/.277 Switch-hitting speedster
Luis Castillo (35) 2002 .263/.305 Switch-hitter. Topped .300 7 times in career
Chase Utley (35) 2006 .291/.305 Career .290 hitter
Benito Santiago (34) 1987 .290/.300 Young at the time and fast
Dan Uggla (33) 2011 .287/.232 Career .259 avg
Not only is what this guy doing rare, but he probably shouldn’t be doing it. If you’re not already, it’s time to start watching.
Bye Big Z
Emotion is part of Carlos Zambrano’s game.
It has made him great at times, the no-hitter in 2008 against the Astros comes to mind.
But it’s also had some negative effects; multiple ejections, fights with teammates and meltdowns on the mound which have lead to explosive run production by opposing teams.
So when Big Z takes the mound you never know what to expect; and tonight was no different.
Tonight the Atlanta Braves knocked Zambrano around to the tune of 8 runs on 8 hits, including 5 HR’s, in just 4.1 innings. This was not terribly surprising considering his 6.52 career era in Atlanta’s Turner Field. And the fact that he threw inside to Chipper Jones and got ejected could also be seen coming from a mile away.
What was surprising was the way Zambrano reacted. When he was ejected he just walked off the mound and into the dugout. No argument, no fights…….. he was just done.
And after he walked off the field, he just kept walking. First to his locker to clean it out, and then out of the stadium.
According to reports, he told some Cubs personal that he was done….retiring. It’s not the first time he has talked about retirement, but it’s the first time he has actually left.
I only have one thing to say about it…..
Bah-Bye!!!
The guy has a 4.82 era, and has only won more than 14 games twice in his 11 year career. And oh ya…. The Cubs owe him $18 million next year.
The Cubs might not have any better options than Zambrano to walk out to the mound, but for $18 million in savings, I think they can find a couple of guys.
“10″
The Chicago Cubs will unveil the new Ron Santo statue tonight. The Santo statue will join the previously dedicated statues of Ernie Banks, Billy Williams and Harry Carey outside of Wrigley Field.
Ron Santo played with the Cubs from 1960-1973, and the White Sox in 1974. He is fourth all-time in games played in a Cubs uniform only behind Hall of Famers Banks, Williams, and Ryne Sandberg. He is fourth all-time in HR’s and RBI’s as a Cub and sixth in hits.
Ron was a Chicago Cubs broadcaster for 21 years with WGN radio.
He is the subject of the film This Old Cub.
Ron played his entire career and lived his life while suffering from diabetes. Over the years Ron Santo helped to raise more than $60 million for theJuvenile Diabetes Research Foundation (JDRF).
Here are some of my favorite Ron Santo baseball cards.
Notice how they used the same photo on the traded card as they used in the 1973 card. They just painted his hat red and cropped the shot some.
I have heard two rumors as to how the statue will look. One version is of Santo making a barehanded pickup of a bunt, the other is of Ronnie clicking his heels in the air.
Courtesy of The Seattle Post Intelligencer
I guess we will find out tonight.
I’m One of Them
You gotta love Cubs fans.
It’s the eternal optimism that fills Wrigley Field day in and day out. The kind of optimism that lets us say “wait til next year” each year.
As I’m watching the game right now with a couple of buddies, the Cubs are beating the Reds 10-3 in the sixth inning. If the Cubs go on to win the game it would be their 7th straight win. It would be their first 7 game win streak since 2008.
Now remember, this is a team 15 games out of first place behind 4 other teams, and a total of 17 games under .500. They have the worst era in the National League. They have the fewest quality starts in the NL. They have the worst fielding percentage and have committed the most errors in the NL.
Despite all that, the conversation has been;
“Where are they in the standings?” “What if they went on a crazy 20 of 25 run?” “You know, they are starting to get healthy for the first time all year.” “Quade had them on a good run last August.”
You gotta love Cubs fans!!!! :)
WrigleyRegular
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