Geovany Comeback ???

The last four seasons have seen Geovany Soto’s batting average bounce back and forth…..

2008- .285

2009- .218

2010- .280

2011- .228

History would suggest that Soto is in store for a bounce-back .280ish type of 2012 season. Well I hate to say it, but don’t count on it.

Soto’s peripheral numbers suggest that he is on a downward plane and I don’t see it moving back up.

His walk rate has steadily decreased from a high of 16% down to a mere 8% during the second half of last season, and his contact rate has also slowly declined down to 71%. When you pair those two numbers together you can calculate an expected batting average (xBA). Soto’s xBA in the second half of the season last year was .219.  He actually hit .231, which means he was hitting into good luck.  Good luck usually doesn’t last long, and it especially doesn’t last long for catchers over the age of 29.

What’s worse is his batting average against right-handed pitchers. Last year he hit just .207 against righties. Even in 2010 when his overall average was .280, he hit just .235 vs righties.

So here is a name that I think is going to come up a lot during spring training, Steve Clevenger.

Clevenger was the Cubs 7^th round pick in the 2006 draft. Last year he hit .319 combined between AA and AAA and is a career .308 hitter in the minors. Oh, and the most important part, he hits left-handed.

I expect to hear a lot of talk about sitting Soto against tough right-handers this year, if not a straight out left-right platoon situation with Clevenger.

So when you start those fantasy baseball drafts, don’t be a Homer……..take a pass on Soto and get your catcher someplace else.